Japanese Yen May Strengthen On Declining Global Outlook

Fundamental Outlook for Japanese Yen: Bullish

- Industrial Production Fell 8.1% in November, Which Was the Fastest Pace in 55 Years
- Inflation Slowed To 1% From 1.7% in November
- Japanese PMI Fell To 30.8 from 36.7, Which Was the Lowest Since Records Began In 2004

The Japanese Yen lost ground to the dollar for the first week in two months as Japanese fundamental data signaled that the economy is headed into a prolonged recession. Indeed, industrial production declined 8.1%, which was the fastest pace in 55 years. Additionally, the record low PMI reading of 30.8 leaves little hope that activity in the world’s second largest economy will rebound in the near-term as companies continue to pull back in the face of a recession. The release of the BoJ minutes revealed that the committee had discussed taking on credit risk a month before they started buying short-term debt following their announcement of a 0.2% rate cut. Policy makers stated that the increasing difficulty of Japanese companies to obtain credit due to “deteriorating markets” forced them to take further action. Yesterday, Bank of Japan policy board member Hidetoshi Kamezaki said officials may consider “extraordinary steps” to improve access to funding for companies.

The USD/JPY would rise to as high as 91.30 last week where it ran into resistance at the 20-day SMA. The failure to break above the short-term technical indicator may be a sign that investors are still reluctant to abandon their Yen long positions. The deteriorating fundamentals globally have increase fears that the current global recession will continue to deepen which remain a dampening factor on risk appetite. The lack of Japanese economic data on the docket and the New Year will leave many traders on the sidelines setting up for another week of low volume. However, we could see bargain hunting and year end buying fuel a bout of risk appetite. Where a break above the 20-day SMA may lead to a change in bias and further Yen losses.

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Wyoming, Montana Ski Resorts Adjust to Economy

Ski resorts in Wyoming and Montana see downturn in bookings; answer with deals

Wyoming and Montana ski resorts are rolling out deals to counter hard economic times that are cutting into their advance bookings.

Skiers heading to the three ski resorts in the Jackson Hole region of northwest Wyoming can get a free airline ticket with the purchase of three airfares.

The Whitefish Mountain Resort in northwest Montana is offering rental condos for half price through January.

Incentives are being offered at other resorts as well.

"I think what makes this year different is, of course, the economy, and the concern that people are really going to cut back on travel spending and so the packages this year are much more aggressive," Tim O'Donoghue, executive director of the Jackson Hole Chamber of Commerce.

Nationwide, early sales and reservations figures for some destination ski resorts suggests the economy is putting a crimp on the $6 billion ski industry.

At Jackson Hole, Wyoming's leading destination ski area, advance bookings for December were off about 30 percent to 50 percent from last year, O'Donoghue said.

However, the trend lately is for people to book ski trips closer to the time when they actually travel, he said.

"The well-informed, experienced skiers are waiting longer to see what deals are available," O'Donoghue said.

Donnie Clapp, spokesman for Montana's Whitefish resort, said advance bookings were down less than 10 percent.

"We're feeling pretty good about it," Clapp said.

Whitefish received a big boost when it landed a group trip that is bringing some 420 college students from California.

"They usually go somewhere different every year," Clapp said. "They chose us this year."

There's encouraging signs for Jackson Hole, too.

Enplanements of air travelers is down only 16 percent, and reservations at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort's ski school and for private lessons are running about the same at last year.

In addition, Jackson Hole Mountain Resort is debuting a new, $32 million aerial tram next weekend that can carry up to 100 skiers in a car at a time. It is one of the few U.S. ski resorts with a large aerial tram.

"In the ski world it's big news," resort spokeswoman Anna Olson said.

But the key to any ski resort, in good economic times or bad, is the amount of snow on the hills.

Grand Targhee Resort in the Jackson Hole area was one of the few U.S. resorts to have all its lifts and terrain open by last Friday thanks to plentiful snowfall.

"Travelers will go skiing and snowboarding if the snow is there -- hands down despite what the economy is doing," Grand Targhee spokesman David Hudacsko, said.

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