The New Zealand dollar pushed higher against the greenback for the fifth consecutive week as oil prices crossed above $50 a barrel for the first time in nearly a month. The rise in crude drove the commodity-based currency to test 0.6000 during the week, but the sharp pullback in global commodity prices paired with the lack of momentum to close above the psychological resistance continues to favor a bearish forecast for the kiwi-dollar.
The New Zealand dollar pushed higher against the greenback for the fifth consecutive week as oil prices crossed above $50 a barrel for the first time in nearly a month. The rise in crude drove the commodity-based currency to test 0.6000 during the week, but the sharp pullback in global commodity prices paired with the lack of momentum to close above the psychological resistance continues to favor a bearish forecast for the kiwi-dollar.
Meanwhile, deteriorating fundamentals paired with financial uncertainties is likely to weigh on growth for the $128B economy throughout the first half of the year, and as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to continue their easing cycle, the interest rate outlook could drag on the kiwi going forward.
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Sunday, January 11, 2009
New Zealand Dollar Interest Rate Outlook Weakens Further
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Sunday, January 4, 2009
How Many Kinds of Main Strategies are There in Forex Trading
There may be dozens of strategies in Forex trading. Let's just talk about the roots.
Nature Of Market:
Everything in the universe has its NATURE. So is Forex market. So is every currencies pair in this market. For example, GBP/JPY always moves faster, and its wave range is longer than other pairs, such as a hundred pips during a day or even a hour. EUR/GBP generally waves narrowly several pips only within a day. For American, EUR/USD and GBP/USD like to sleep in day and dance at night. AUD/USD and NZD/USD look like twin, they commonly act in the same style, if one of they goes north, another one does not like to go south. But EUR/USD and USD/CHF are doomed to be enemy, while one of them flies up like a hydrogen balloon, the counterpart mostly will drop like a lead ball. And so on, so on.
Once we find this kind of "Nature of Market", we can develop and figure out some strategies for particular currencies pairs, just follow their nature, predict their moving direction and range. Then we will get our own trading strategy and system.
Fundamental Trading:
In Forex market, many professional analysts like to use a kind of method to predict the future. It is so-called "Fundamental Analysis". Based on this method, they develop many kinds of strategies to trade Forex. These are strategies of forecasting the future price movements of currencies based on economic, political, environmental and other relevant factors and statistics that will affect the basic supply and demand of whatever underlies the foreign currencies.
If you like to try Fundamental Trading, you need learn and understand a lot of finance knowledge. Actually, not only finance knowledge, you need to be interested at many things of this world, including politics, economy, geography, culture, diplomacy, even military affairs. And you need to study the core underlying elements that influence the economy of a particular entity. For example, when the USA's GDP or employment report is strong, you begin to get a fairly clear picture: the general health of America's economy is good. So the US dollar should be stronger than other currencies. But how far can the US dollar go? Fundamental Trading may not answer this question very accurately. You may need to come up with other precise tools as to how best to translate this information into entry and exit points for a particular trading strategy.
Hedge:
In finance, a hedge is an investment that is taken out specifically to reduce the risk in another investment. Hedging is a strategy designed to minimize exposure to an unwanted business risk, while still allowing the business to profit from an investment activity.
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Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Forex Traders Push US Dollar to Key Support - Is the Correction Over?
The US Dollar has been punished by heavy selling pressure in recent days. The US Dollar Index, an average of the greenback's value against six top currencies, has now retraced 50% of the most recent leg of the rally starting in late September (see chart below). Support is being reinfoced by a key upward-sloping trend line that has guided USD higher since the multi-year down trend changed gears at historic lows in mid-July. This will be a formidable hurdle for US dollar bears to overcome, with any signs of exhaustion in downward momentum in the coming days opening the door for USD bulls to add to existing positions or initiate new ones.
US Dollar Index - Daily Chart
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