US Dollar Holds To Wide Ranges

US Dollar Holds To Wide Ranges, ISM Services Forecasted to Hit Record Low on Wednesday

The US dollar remains within the range it has held to since the start of November, and for what it’s worth, day-to-day moves signal little more than consolidation.

While it is possible that we will see a sharp correction lower in the near-term, the long-term trend remains very much in favor of US dollar strength. Though Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has indicated that the FOMC is likely to cut rates further, the fed funds rate is already at a historic low of 1.00 percent which leaves little in the way of maneuverability when it comes to monetary policy going forward. As a result, the option of quantitative easing - where the Fed buys long-term Treasuries to push rates down - has been presented as a more feasible option, and this will certainly be a development worth watching in coming weeks and months.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, conditions in US non-manufacturing sector - which accounts for approximately 70 percent of total economic activity in the country and includes retail, services, and finance - are anticipated to have worsened in November as the Institute for Supply Management index is estimated to fall to new record low of 42.0 from 44.4. Indeed, consumer confidence remains exceptionally weak, and the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has already announced that the US economy has been in recession since December 2007. A disappointing result could weigh on the US dollar, but traders should also keep an eye on the employment component as a gauge for Friday's US non-farm payroll (NFP) report.

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